Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Zero predictive power

In case you ever thought that astrological sign signified anything about ones personality, interests or other tendencies (apart from the gullibility of the person announcing theirs), here is a nice example of large-number statistics.
How Races and Religions Match in Online Dating « OkTrends: "The Zodiac and Other Beliefs
Since he’s a Pisces and I’m a Virgo, Chris and I of course think the Zodiac is total bullshit, and it was very gratifying to have the data bear this out. Here are the grouped match percentages for a random pool of 500,000 users. Astrological sign has no effect whatsoever on how compatible two people are.



We’re showing you this table, as dull as it is, because the uniformity neatly illustrates how beefy our data set is. There are 144 pools considered above, and they all match the mean plus or minus 0.5%. ...   Red indicates mutual dislike and green, mutual like. For brevity, and because that’s where we have by far the most data, all the tables on this page display data for straight men and women only."